“The Republic of the Marshall Islands is facing an unprecedented crisis due to climate change,” reads the opening of a brief about the RMI’s new National Adaption Plan being circulated by the Climate Change Directorate.
“Acute threats such as rising sea levels, fluctuating temperatures, and inconsistent rainfall are expected to have profound effects across all atolls and economic sectors. The far-reaching consequences will affect all facets of Marshallese life. Many are already being experienced.”
The brief states that Majuro and Ebeye, as urban centers, “are particularly vulnerable.”
With the height of land averaging below six feet, “even moderate sea level rises of 20 inches are projected to result in regular over-wash events, which could make many places uninhabitable.”
The briefing states that the RMI government “conducted comprehensive and inclusive consultations” to arrive at the National Adaptation Plan in response to climate change and sea level rise. The plan, abbreviated as NAP and called the RMI’s “survival plan,” “sets out an adaptation pathway to guide the country’s response to the impacts of climate change.”
It lays out plans to address climate change from now to 2040, after which more difficult decisions are anticipated due to expected sea level rise. In the 2040-20270 period, the Marshall Islands will be faced with needing to decide which atolls can be protected and planning population relocations, the NAP says.
“In the near term, 2024 -2040, the NAP seeks to address the required institutional frameworks to address climate change and prioritizes immediate, low-risk adaptation actions informed by current science,” the brief said.
“During the mid-century period from 2040 to 2070 the Government will need to re-evaluate existing protective measures, based on new sea-level rise data, and update adaptation plans, and consider which atolls can be sustainably protected in the longer term and where planned relocations and new infrastructure will be needed. Between 2070 – 2100, sea levels are expected to rise 20 inches, triggering habitation responses and a comprehensive review of existing strategies.”
Beyond 2070, two scenarios are identified in the NAP:
- If sea-level rise is manageable, the government may continue to invest in protective structures for the existing communities.
- If not, then the focus will need to turn to discussions on planned relocation measures and/or seeking alternative land beyond the Marshall Islands.
“2150 is another critical year,” the climate brief said. “By 2150 a 6.5 foot (sea level) rise is currently projected. Whether it is feasible to provide for this or whether to look to other strategies including international migration or seeking alternative land will have to be decided.”
The NAP spells out the high cost of adaptation, particularly if it involves creating new or building up existing islands to respond to a predicted over six foot seal level rise.
“The cost of adaptation strategies to protect against sea-level rise in particular is substantial, with estimates ranging from $250 million for protection of individual specific areas to over $1 billion for comprehensive protection of both urban centers against a 20 inch sea-level rise,” the brief said.
Raising and protecting an area against a six-and-a-half-foot sea level rise could exceed $5 billion.
“The government will need to evaluate the practicality and cost implications of these options, including who might fund such costs. Mobilizing resources, from international funding and domestic revenues to innovative finance mechanisms,” the NAP said.