Just about every major news agency in the US and around the world is reporting on what could be one of the worst-ever El Niño weather conditions later this year.
For the Marshall Islands, an El Niño year usually causes an extended drought as well warming ocean water at the equator pushing tuna into RMI waters. The second is a welcome phenomenon, the first not so much.
The last big El Niño to hit the RMI began in late 1997 and continued into 1998, resulting in almost no rain from January to May. The airport reservoir ran dry and was pumping about 200,000 gallons of water a day from the Laura lens well. City water was on for a few hours every 14 days because 14 days of pumping water from Laura provided enough mass of water in the reservoir that allowed Majuro Water and Sewer Company to pump fresh water into the distribution pipes with enough pressure to reach town.
At the time, the US government declared a disaster in response to appeals from the RMI government and numerous reverse osmosis water-making units were air flown to Majuro and other islands to help residents get through the severe drought.
“A brewing El Niño is expected to take shape as Pacific waters rapidly warm, with new climate updates pointing to rising odds of this powerful pattern developing into a ‘Super’ El Niño later this year,” reported Fox News last week.
The news channel said while there is still uncertainty about how strong the brewing El Niño will be, “one thing is clear: El Niño will play a major role in shaping the upcoming hurricane season.”
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said “the chances that it reaches ‘Super’ El Niño strength are increasing,” reported Fox.
The bottom line is conditions for an El Niño are developing. Subsurface warming of the Pacific Ocean is occurring faster than expected, indicating a significant El Niño event. Some forecasts suggest this could rival the strongest El Niño events on record.
The El Niño is expected to keep building this year, and if it does, the RMI can expect drought conditions late this year through the normal dry season that runs January to April or May.